Finally worked my way back up into positive territory with a huge 9-2 ATS Week 15 NFL record. My season-long mark is now 68-64-2 ATS (51.5%). I still regret my brutal Week 8 and 9 performances, as without those, I would be 18 game games over .500 right now and at around 58%, right about the record I have posted on best bets in each of the last two seasons. That said, there’s no going back and no excuses; just pushing forward. This Week 16 slate offers games across four days, and as always, the VSiN NFL Analytics Report is LOADED! Even still, admittedly, I’m not a huge fan of this board. Here’s what I have come up with after digging through all of my resources for Week 16 NFL best bets:Pittsburgh at Baltimore
Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET (FOX)Does Pittsburgh-Baltimore, a battle of 10-4 and 9-5 teams, feel like it should have a point spread of nearly a touchdown? To me, it doesn’t, and I’m not surprised to see a majority of bets actually on the side of the Steelers here. When the majority number of bets was on road underdogs for an ATS wager, these majority groups have actually produced adequate records, 71-65 ATS (52.2%) going back to September 2022. The trends also suggest the number could be too much.
First, Pittsburgh’s Mike Tomlin is on a 30-20 SU and 35-13 ATS run as a single-digit underdog. On the other sideline, Baltimore is 25-13 SU but 12-25 ATS as a divisional home favorite since 2010, and QB Lamar Jackson is 24-11 SU but 12-22 ATS as a single-digit home favorite since 2018. This is also a rematch of the 18-16 Pittsburgh win about a month ago. Concerning that, Baltimore is on a 6-21 ATS skid in its last 27 rematch home games. On top of that stuff, this is a head-to-head series that has seen underdogs go 16-2-2 ATS in the last 20, and only one of the last 17 meetings has seen a line this big. You could probably figure this out from what I just mentioned, but Pittsburgh is 6-1 ATS in the last seven at Baltimore.
Week 16 NFL Best Bets: Let’s go Pittsburgh +6.5 to make a game of this Saturday
Cleveland at Cincinnati
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET (CBS)I’ve been riding Cincinnati lately because of its ability to put up points, and I prefer the Bengals in situations where the opponent is really poor on either side of the ball. It could be said that the Browns are poor on both sides and have turnover problems as well. Now they turn to their third quarterback of the season in Dorian Thompson-Robinson. He brings a little different dynamic than Jameis Winston, as he can run a bit and probably won’t turn the ball over nearly as often. That said, this Cleveland offense’s prolific capability dropped immensely.
The Browns are the fade subject of three different late-season NFL betting systems I’ve been tracking: 1) In NFL December/January regular season games since 2010, road teams scoring fewer than 19 PPG and playing as dogs of +13 points or fewer are just 32-118 SU and 55-92 ATS (37.4%). 2) In NFL December/January regular season games since 2012, road underdogs allowing 24.0 PPG or more are just 36-152 SU and 82-102 ATS (44.6%). 3) In NFL December/January regular season games since 2010, teams on losing streaks of at least three games outright and playing as underdogs or favorites of less than 3 points are just 42-98 SU and 57-84 ATS (40.4%).
I mentioned the turnover issue before, much the reason why Winston is being replaced. After the ugly loss to KC last week, NFL teams coming off a game with a -5 turnover differential or worse and then having to play away from home have gone just 4-16 SU and 3-17 ATS (15%) in their last 20 tries. If all that wasn’t enough, this is a rematch from earlier this season, and these two teams are at opposite ends of the spectrum in that regard. Cincinnati is 20-7 ATS in the last 27 rematch opportunities, including an 11-0 ATS streak vs. Cleveland. The Browns are on a lengthy 9-28-1 ATS rematch skid in the last 38 and 4-10-1 ATS in the last 15 revenge games.
Week 16 NFL Best Bets: Let’s lay the 7.5-points with Cincinnati
Arizona at Carolina
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET (FOX)I stressed last week in fading Carolina against the Cowboys that the Panthers hadn’t demonstrated enough lately to be trusted in the home favorite role. How right was I on that? Well, they are back in their customary role of home dog this week, and they will be looking to extend a run of three straight ATS wins as such. The teams they covered against in that three-game stretch were Kansas City, Tampa Bay, and New Orleans. The first two are better teams than Arizona, who prior to last week’s outburst against the Patriots, were sort of struggling offensively.
I don’t like to take too much away from a single game in the NFL, and with QB Kyler Murray just 3-9 SU and ATS in his last 12 starts as a favorite, and QB Bryce Young showing great strides prior to last week’s outing, I think this has competitive game written all over it. Again, not focusing too much on last week because it was a terrible line spot. Prior to that, the Panthers were playing inspired football. For a young team and rookie head coach, that doesn’t just get wiped out from one loss. They are building something.
This head-to-head series also shows some interesting results of late, with underdogs on 4-0 ATS streak in the ARI-CAR series, typical when teams aren’t comfortable or don’t typically play well in the chalk role. Furthermore, the Panthers are 6-1 ATS in the last seven versus the Cardinals. Not sure why there’s such a big public backing for Arizona (64% handle, 74% bets) as a road favorite.
Week 16 NFL Best Bets: I’ll play Carolina +5 against Arizona
Tennessee at Indianapolis
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET (CBS)To be frank, something stinks about this Tennessee-Indianapolis line for Sunday. You have a 3-11 team hitting the road to take on a 6-8 club that is supposedly still in the “playoff picture,” and the line is only 3.5? What gives? Well, my initial reaction is that something is now amiss in Indianapolis and oddsmakers know it. It’s hard for a team to bounce back from an ugly effort in which huge mental mistakes and coaching errors were much the reason for demise.
Take a look at the ugly turnover system that stands in the Colts’ way for this one: NFL teams coming off a game in which they turned the ball over five times or more have continued to flounder, going 16-15 SU but 8-22-1 ATS (26.7%) when favored in the next contest since 2012. I have a bad feeling that bettors at DraftKings are walking into a classic NFL trap spot, a late-season divisional clash that will be unexpectedly competitive.
As of Thursday, there was 68% of the handle and 70% of the bets on the host Colts. If you don’t recall, over the past two-plus seasons, when more than 65% of the handle has been on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group is just 130-139 ATS (48.3%). In addition, in NFL divisional games of 2022-24, DK majority handle bettors have been awful, as this majority group is just 91-117 ATS (43.8%). I don’t have a lot of superlatives to share regarding the Titans, but they are 21-11 SU and 21-10 ATS when coming off a home loss since 2015 and are on a 16-8 SU and 15-9 ATS surge in rematch games. Plus, underdogs have won the last four ATS of the TEN-IND series in Indianapolis. The October game between these teams was decided by 3 points. I could easily see a similar contest here.
Week 16 NFL Best Bets: I’ll go Tennessee +3.5 at Indy
Minnesota at Seattle
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (FOX)Since Green Bay went into Seattle last Sunday night and dominated the Seahawks, the assumption is the Vikings, who have an even better record than the Packers, will do the same. I don’t see it that way at all, and for me, it has as much to do with the resting scenarios as anything else. Green Bay was playing with extra rest. Minnesota is on short rest after playing a Monday night game.
This is a pretty good trend spot for head coach Mike Macdonald’s teams, as Seattle is 35-23 ATS (60.3%) when coming off a SU loss since 2015 and 37-26 ATS (58.7%) as an underdog since 2016. Quarterback Geno Smith, who was injured late last week but is practicing and expected to play, is 7-8 SU but 10-5 ATS with his team coming off a double-digit loss since 2013.
If you’ve been reading my best bets the last couple of weeks, I’ve been pointing to a particular system that shows the pressure on the league’s elite teams late in the season. In fact, since 2015, NFL teams with winning percentages of 83% or higher are just 44-36 SU and 26-53-1 ATS (32.9%) in December/January regular season games. This is a tough travel spot, even for a very good Minnesota team, especially with the importance home-field advantage has had in this series: Home teams are 7-2 ATS in the MIN-SEA series since 2009.
Week 16 NFL Best Bets: I’ll take Seattle +3 to at least threaten an upset
San Francisco at Miami
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)San Francisco has all kinds of injury problems and is 6-8 SU and 5-9 ATS. They have lost five of the last six ATS and haven’t won in Miami since 1995. YET, oddsmakers see enough reason to have the 49ers installed as 1-point favorites on the road for Sunday. It doesn’t make sense unless you consider that things are even more unraveled on the other sideline. The line has flipped since opening, and bettors are getting behind San Francisco.
I’d be more concerned that 59% of the handle was on the 49ers, and the bookmakers at DraftKings were holding the Dolphins as favorite or expanding their chalk line. In terms of actual team strength, my effective strength indicators still show SF at +2.2, and Miami at -0.7, meaning the 49ers are the better team still, despite the same 6-8 records. They will also be backed by a successful, long-running late-season system that is 3-0 ATS the last two weeks, so I will continue to ride it: Since 2014, NFL teams coming off divisional losses and now playing on the road have gone 63-66 SU but 76-49 ATS (60.8%) in the follow-up game.
Week 16 NFL Best Bets: I’ll look for San Francisco (-1) to get a road win Sunday in Miami
Jacksonville at Las Vegas
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)So much of what transpires for the NFL’s worst teams at the end of any given season hinges upon the effort level and interest that team seems to have in playing for the franchise or head coach. Last week’s MNF loss for the Raiders got me thinking that this team still wants to perform well for head coach Antonio Pierce, and they nearly pulled off a late come-from-behind upset of Atlanta. Quarterback Desmond Ridder started very slow but came on at the end of the game, too, nearly pulling off the win.
For this week’s game, Las Vegas has a real shot at a victory and ending a 10-game losing skid, as Jacksonville comes to town with a 3-11 mark. The Jaguars have been held to 10 points or fewer in three of their last five games. With QB Mac Jones at the controls, there is an ugly trend in play for Sunday, as he is 1-15 SU and 2-14 ATS (12.5%) as an underdog of 7 points or less. There are also multiple late-season systems that will be affecting this, two of them going against the Jaguars: 1) In NFL December/January regular season games since 2010, road teams scoring fewer than 19 PPG and playing as dogs of +13 points or fewer are just 32-118 SU and 55-92 ATS (37.4%). 2) In NFL December/January regular season games since 2012, road underdogs allowing 24.0 PPG or more are just 36-152 SU and 82-102 ATS (44.6%). I know backing the Raiders as favorites right now might seem crazy, but they are the smallest of favorites and seem hungry for a win.
Week 16 NFL Best Bets: Let’s go Las Vegas -1 to end the skid
Tampa Bay at Dallas
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)It might feel like betting an Under now in a Tampa Bay game with QB Baker Mayfield as hot as he’s been being akin to stepping on the tracks when the train is coming through, but sometimes the tougher, less obvious conclusions are most successful in NFL betting. The Bucs’ current stretch of putting up 26 points or more in four straight games has come against three struggling teams and one last week in which the defense (LA Chargers) seems to have lost its way. The last time that Tampa played a decent performing defense was San Francisco five weeks ago, and they mustered only 20 points in that one after rallying late.
Dallas’ defense is playing quite well since it got some of its key players back. In fact, with games against high-powered Cincinnati and Washington included, the Cowboys have only allowed 21.8 PPG in their last four. There are some other pretty nice tidbits suggesting that Under is the way to go in the Sunday night tilt. First, Tampa Bay’s Todd Bowles is on 13-3 Under the total run as the road favorite. His team is also on a 6-1 Under run in Sunday night football games, perfectly complimenting Dallas’ 16-7 Under mark in that spot. Plus, the last five games of the TB-DAL series in Dallas went Under the total.
If all that wasn’t enough, we also have a unique situation going on in the DK Betting Splits, where, as of Thursday, 80% of the handle was backing an Under. That far exceeds the number in meeting this criterion: When 56% or more of the handle has been on the Under in an NFL game total over the last two seasons, this majority group has been quite sharp, 70-52 ATS (57.4%).
Week 16 NFL Best Bets: Let’s go UNDER 48 in the Tampa Bay-Dallas SNF tilt
